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-   -   November Silver Price Movement (http://www.goldclubasia.com/forum/showthread.php?t=10360)

MasterID 01-11-2012 12:11 PM

November Silver Price Movement
 
Any predictions?

I predict it's on it's way to $33.50 again

pika 01-11-2012 02:54 PM

My view remains the same until silver price meets the next S/R zone 33.25-33.65. Now that 32.40 is broken, the chance to reach the S/R zone is higher.

stektan 01-11-2012 03:27 PM

I'm mildly bullish on silver for Nov but depends on election results too

Danny 02-11-2012 01:58 AM

If depending on the election to affect the PM prices, it will be hard. Looks like Obama will win this round.

Instead, i think we should look to the Europe zone. The ECB decision over the next few weeks to help the debt ridden countries or not is more important.

And China's new leadership direction as well will play a big part on how the economy is going to be like.

USA, if you really want to look at them, will be how much the Federal Reserves are printing, not so much of the election. Whoever is the new president (or old), USA is still going to spiral downwards.

MasterID 02-11-2012 07:14 AM

Need a balance view....any personal view that Silver will tank to 26 again or lower?

stektan 02-11-2012 08:36 AM

Yes I think in the early stages of the recession, silver will go down to $2x. Better to keep some powder then..

pika 02-11-2012 09:47 AM

If history is anything to go by, during the 2008 crisis, silver was smacked down 60% from its US$21/oz peak at that time. So if the same 60% fall were to happen from the near US$50/oz peak reached last year, that will be around US$20/oz, which is an even stronger S/R zone than US$26/oz.

However, unlike the 2008 crisis, there were no recently tested support level at that time like what we have at the 26 level, which the market has tested 6-7 times over the past 2 years without success of breaking it. Consequently, this failure to break lower than 26 has substantially strengthen it as a possible floor for phase 2 in this silver bull run.

After the last crisis, many people around the world would have been more aware over silver's dual role both as money and investment with its physical demand substantially increased. So, this time could be different (I feel unnatural saying this though) for the PMs and they may not correct as much as the previous crisis. Having said this, I too, have reserved some dry powder ready to fire at 26 and 20 if market offers them to me again. :) But if it happens at 20, the physical market may not have enough supply of silver and the premium may become very high then.

pika 02-11-2012 10:19 AM

Consider exchange rates
 
There is one more consideration when buying PMs during crisis time and that is the exchange rate. During a crisis, the US$ will strengthen as investors liquidate their securities and hold US dollars (if history repeats itself). So if the SGD (or any other currencies apart from USD that you are buying PM with) weakens substantially during the crisis, the exchange rate effect may neutralise the price advantage for buyers to some extent.

E.g. Silver price at US$25 and S$ exchange rate = 1.2, silver price in SGD will be S$30.
If Silver price drops to US$20 and S$ exchange rate = 1.5, silver price in SGD will still be the same at S$30.

Therefore, watch out for the exchange rate too during crisis times when there is frenzy and disarray everywhere, and forex go wild.

alor 02-11-2012 10:37 AM

no need to think so much, get Zim notes :p confirm can not buy anything

so you need not have a restless night. or worry when price goes down or up :D

if you have gold silver and cash.

really going around this can make your story a success

MasterID 02-11-2012 12:39 PM

HK just "printed" another round of money, bringing the total to US$2.55b

The world will be flushed with money


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