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-   -   Technical Analysis (http://www.goldclubasia.com/forum/showthread.php?t=11227)

pika 30-01-2013 10:12 PM

Technical Analysis
 
Very bullish... Very soon... :D

http://www.goldclubasia.com/forum/pi...&pictureid=530

pika 31-01-2013 09:20 AM

SGD looks set to weaken against the USD in coming months
 
http://www.goldclubasia.com/forum/pi...&pictureid=531

With rising silver spot in USD and a weakening SGD, there may not be much savings to be gained even if silver price should fall.

However, if silver price breaks out of the huge flag (triangle) formation to the upside, the opportunity losses can be many times higher.

Consider some serious stacking now... :)

bargains.singapore 31-01-2013 10:32 AM

Triangles can break either ways, the pattern might breakdownards and silver goes all the way to 26, personally I think the price would be range bound...are the secondary indicators pointing to an upside?

Quote:

Originally Posted by pika (Post 63607)


panda88 31-01-2013 10:54 AM

Statistics.... :rolleyes: ;)

pika 31-01-2013 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bargains.singapore (Post 63630)
Triangles can break either ways, the pattern might breakdownards and silver goes all the way to 26, personally I think the price would be range bound...are the secondary indicators pointing to an upside?

I don't usually use secondary indicators, but since the moving average (MA) is a popular indicator that the market uses, you can check out the 50 and 200 periods MA for all the charts.

Check out the picture for all the timeframes from the very short term hourly H1 and H4 to the longer term Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts. Where is price now with respect to these MA lines - above or below? :D

The statistics as follows:
Chart Timeframes - 50MA, 200MA
=========================
H1 - Both above
H4 - Both above
Daily - Both above
Weekly - Both above
Monthly -Both above

Is this not statistically significant enough? :D

Of course, the market can always throw surprises at us when we least expect it, but I think we would have done justice to ourselves for the reasons shared to back up our individual stacking plan. :)

bargains.singapore 31-01-2013 12:07 PM

Thanks Pika :). I usually use the %william and the stochastics along with the volumes. With all the algo trading sometimes volume distribution helps identify patterns. Went back to look at the charts after seeing your reply.

Stochastics are mixed as of now but bollingers do show a potential for upwards break. With the Fed continuing with the asset purchase looks like there is a potential for spike to 34-35 range

Quote:

Originally Posted by pika (Post 63634)
I don't usually use secondary indicators, but since the moving average (MA) is a popular indicator that the market uses, you can check out the 50 and 200 periods MA for all the charts.

Check out the picture for all the timeframes from the very short term hourly H1 and H4 to the longer term Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts. Where is price now with respect to these MA lines - above or below? :D

The statistics as follows:
Chart Timeframes - 50MA, 200MA
=========================
H1 - Both above
H4 - Both above
Daily - Both above
Weekly - Both above
Monthly -Both above

Is this not statistically significant enough? :D

Of course, the market can always throw surprises at us when we least expect it, but I think we would have done justice to ourselves for the reasons shared to back up our individual stacking plan. :)


pika 09-02-2013 11:13 AM

Silver chart - 9 Feb 2013
 
http://i1353.photobucket.com/albums/...ps3926b2b0.png

Price did not break out of the triangle (bound by the two converging yellow lines) this week. The chance for price to break out next week has dwindled with this week's bearish closing candle. Using secondary indicators (MA50 and MA200), downward price pressure is emerging:

Timeframe - 50MA, 200MA
=====================
H1 - Below, Below
H4 - Below, Above
Daily - Below, Above
Weekly - Above, Above
Monthly - Above, Above

If price continues to be contained within the triangle, it will converge to 30.25-30.30 at the end of April. Meanwhile, price has room to bounce within the triangle between
29.10-32.50. I think it is very unlikely that price will take that long to break out. Also, keep an eye on the USD/SGD exchange rate which may mitigate the effects of falling silver price in USD as the Sing dollar weakens.

The silver chart in SGD below indicates S$37.30-40 as the converged price at the 3rd week of April. Meanwhile, the price trading range will be S$36.50-39.50 before it breaks out.

http://i1353.photobucket.com/albums/...pscbab1ecf.png

Have a very great weekend and Happy Lunar New Year to all fellow PM stackers/investors! :)

freeier 09-02-2013 10:59 PM

it can be either way right..

if you ask me my bet is a break down before it consolidate and goes into heaven... no reason for pm to start their run unless there is a big currency crisis

pika 10-02-2013 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freeier (Post 64322)
it can be either way right..

if you ask me my bet is a break down before it consolidate and goes into heaven... no reason for pm to start their run unless there is a big currency crisis

Since the focus of this thread is TA, I am interested to know if you have a technical perspective behind your opinion, where price may fall to. Fundamentally, we have no doubts on where price should be heading to, and technically the market has been respecting the long term trendline to the upside since 2008. Hence, i will only change my outlook if price breaks below that yellow baseline. We will know the outcome very soon.

pika 16-02-2013 01:33 PM

Silver Chart 16 Feb 2013
 
http://i1353.photobucket.com/albums/...psad131e27.png

http://i1353.photobucket.com/albums/...ps91d6ddc1.png

Price is still contained within the triangle (or flag/wedge in technical jargon). Will it break down below the long term yellow trendline? Where will price rebound?

My personal view is that price will respect the long term trendline, which means that a rebound is imminent - possibly no later than the following mid week.

Timeframe - 50MA, 200MA
=====================
H1 - Below, Below
H4 - Below, Below
Daily - Below, Below
Weekly - Below, Above
Monthly - Above, Above

From the 50MA and 200MA, downward price pressure is not relieved yet. Confused? Understandably so. But still, plan your trades and trade your plan.

Have a great weekend! :)


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