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  #11  
Old 15-08-2011, 10:07 AM
jloydjay jloydjay is offline
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Originally Posted by getiton View Post
u should probably ask this in a separate thread, keep things neat and simple... i noticed u asked alot of similar qns all over various threads...is it because newbie cannot start new thread?

anyway my take is...silver is silver. 30% or 50% silver, i will buy and keep; it can be used for small change when i need antibiotics in WWIII.
Yes haha I am sorry, don't really know where to go to clarify my doubts.
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  #12  
Old 15-08-2011, 02:28 PM
anzu anzu is offline
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Originally Posted by mettle View Post
6) My understanding is that silver prices are suppressed by major players when they sell paper silver products that increase the supply of silver traded beyond the real physical quantities available. The daily volume of silver traded in this way per day is ridiculous compared to actual amounts of physical silver mined per year. I would think given prices move in waves, there is certainly profit from naked short sell and at the same time use it to attack the price. As the author has written about giving strength to the dollar, the day the dollar collapse is the day the paper silver bubble burst.
Every trade has a buyer and a seller. A seller expects the price to go down or has an immediate need to sell. A buyer expects the price to go up or has an immediate need to buy.

Many commodity markets have paper volumes in excess of the underlying physical production; traders are putting their money according to whether they think the market price is too high or too low. So long as the paper positions are closed out before the delivery deadline, the volume of trade is not going to cause defaults.

Where there is risk, is that in the futures market, many people are trading on margin - the longs don't have the full contract price at hand, the shorts may not have the physical. Worse, the shorts meet margin requirements with cash rather than the underlying goods. If people are sincere about meeting their obligations, then they will have made arrangements to have sufficient funds/physical to make delivery when the contract comes due.

What does concern me is the lack of clarity as to the consequences of defaulting on some exchanges. See HKMEX for an indication that a seller that fails to deliver will be required to settle in cash and pay penalty fees to the exchange, with the amounts set by the exchange via non-public rules. If the settlement price is high enough, the buyer may be satisfied by this, but that would be decoupling the price from the market. If the costs of the default are small enough, it might be more attractive to a seller than getting caught in a short squeeze.

Barring traders relying on such an escape hatch (and if it became a regular occurrence an exchange would become discredited with buyers of physical,) if some large financial institution is heavily shorting the market despite believing the price is going to go up, it is hard to see why all other financial institutions would avoid the profits of going long.
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  #13  
Old 15-08-2011, 05:38 PM
freeier freeier is offline
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the objective of most of us are insurance against the WWIII expected soon.

at that time, whether u have 30% silver or 50% silver (not to mention 92.5%) they will all be scrambled after when those are the only things that are as good as gold (or silver).

granted until that stage u will not get fair value for it (i.e. u can't get 50% price of a ASE on a 50% silver proof or something), but similarly you would be able to get them on a discount (if you know how to find the bargains) now when the world is peaceful..


grab them when the market is quiet and especially if they are cheap pieces..
when the SHTF it will be worthwhile.



This is also same argument for-against the trading of 'limited edition' coins at a premium... when the SHTF nobody cares the edition premium.. all will just grab them coins for their content/limited content of silver/gold
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  #14  
Old 15-08-2011, 05:56 PM
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Wolf Wolf is offline
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Originally Posted by freeier View Post
the objective of most of us are insurance against the WWIII expected soon.

grab them when the market is quiet and especially if they are cheap pieces..when the SHTF it will be worthwhile.
Thank you freeier, wise saying

Let me share an old chinese saying: 盛世的古玩,乱世的黄金
Translating: In peace time, invest in collectables, in trouble time, invest in gold.

I think we should not discount numismatic coins - they have their values and it is worthwhile to understand if they may be useful as a role in protecting your wealth. As a start, get numismatic coins that contain silver and gold - do not touch those base metals coins.
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  #15  
Old 15-08-2011, 06:40 PM
freeier freeier is offline
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Originally Posted by anzu View Post
Every trade has a buyer and a seller. A seller expects the price to go down or has an immediate need to sell. A buyer expects the price to go up or has an immediate need to buy.

Many commodity markets have paper volumes in excess of the underlying physical production; traders are putting their money according to whether they think the market price is too high or too low. So long as the paper positions are closed out before the delivery deadline, the volume of trade is not going to cause defaults.

Where there is risk, is that in the futures market, many people are trading on margin - the longs don't have the full contract price at hand, the shorts may not have the physical. Worse, the shorts meet margin requirements with cash rather than the underlying goods. If people are sincere about meeting their obligations, then they will have made arrangements to have sufficient funds/physical to make delivery when the contract comes due.

What does concern me is the lack of clarity as to the consequences of defaulting on some exchanges. See HKMEX for an indication that a seller that fails to deliver will be required to settle in cash and pay penalty fees to the exchange, with the amounts set by the exchange via non-public rules. If the settlement price is high enough, the buyer may be satisfied by this, but that would be decoupling the price from the market. If the costs of the default are small enough, it might be more attractive to a seller than getting caught in a short squeeze.

Barring traders relying on such an escape hatch (and if it became a regular occurrence an exchange would become discredited with buyers of physical,) if some large financial institution is heavily shorting the market despite believing the price is going to go up, it is hard to see why all other financial institutions would avoid the profits of going long.


yap. precisely. the conspiracy theory of thrashing of paper silver will only work if delivery is not required or there is very easy escape route out.

from market rumour, the non-deliverable buy back scenarios in comex over the last few events were at 50~80% above spot level. this punishes the shortists enough and i don't see why people would be stupid enough to continue to do that.
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  #16  
Old 15-08-2011, 07:31 PM
freeier freeier is offline
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Originally Posted by Wolf View Post
I think we should not discount numismatic coins - they have their values and it is worthwhile to understand if they may be useful as a role in protecting your wealth. As a start, get numismatic coins that contain silver and gold - do not touch those base metals coins.
the question is, would you pay 30~50% premium for the silver/gold value in those numismatic coins ?
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  #17  
Old 15-08-2011, 09:56 PM
getiton getiton is offline
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Originally Posted by leroyel View Post
Although silver is silver. Unless u have the capability to refine it and extract out the silver content or proof that it contain that amount of silver, the price of it would significantly dropped because no one will go and assay it during the WWIII . People still buy silver coins and bars because they are easily tradeable as the purity content is stated to prevent confusion. Will u accept a thing that a person claim that contain 20% silver in a time of need or u rather be sure with another person who offer u a nice and shiny canadian silver maple leaf coin
i refer to those well known coins which most silver buyers will know about. if the 20% silver is a nice price, and I can't afford the maple...why not?

as others have said...it's cheaper to buy... but there will always be some guy out there who may just pay some premium on the junk silver...who knows?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jloydjay View Post
Yes haha I am sorry, don't really know where to go to clarify my doubts.
yo bro/sis/boss, no need to say sorry! maybe I was abit pissed off that day so I felt a bit zappy. sorry to you!

i wonder if there is a way for us to buy a big bar from crimex and demand delivery. i can't afford it but don't mind chipping in for a few oz worth
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  #18  
Old 16-08-2011, 03:16 AM
anzu anzu is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by getiton View Post
i refer to those well known coins which most silver buyers will know about. if the 20% silver is a nice price, and I can't afford the maple...why not?

as others have said...it's cheaper to buy... but there will always be some guy out there who may just pay some premium on the junk silver...who knows?
In the US there is a good market in junk silver - at least US issued 90% and 40% coins. How many people in Singapore are willing to invest in it? Much less why would they pay a premium? A key reason Americans like junk silver is the lack of premium compared to 999 fine silver.

If you can only afford a few coins, then it doesn't really matter, but if you are buying in quantity, 20% silver takes up a lot more space (less than 5 times the weight, but more than 5 times the volume.)


Quote:
Originally Posted by getiton View Post
i wonder if there is a way for us to buy a big bar from crimex and demand delivery. i can't afford it but don't mind chipping in for a few oz worth
If your goal is to get a 1000 oz bar, a bullion dealer will be much less hassle.

If your goal is to test their willingness to deliver, you probably cannot do that unless you are a big enough futures trader to have an account directly with the exchange rather than going through a broker.
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  #19  
Old 16-08-2011, 10:04 AM
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alor alor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freeier View Post
yap. precisely. the conspiracy theory of thrashing of paper silver will only work if delivery is not required or there is very easy escape route out.

from market rumour, the non-deliverable buy back scenarios in comex over the last few events were at 50~80% above spot level. this punishes the shortists enough and i don't see why people would be stupid enough to continue to do that.
may be they are in a bad position, rather than saying they are dumb.
or there is only one way, "COVER" or auto cut out.
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silver is all about demand * gold is all about supply
holding gold & silver with purpose then the rest is just strategies
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  #20  
Old 16-08-2011, 10:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freeier View Post
the question is, would you pay 30~50% premium for the silver/gold value in those numismatic coins ?
Yes, a small percentage of my stash belongs to such a category. Some example of those coins are the 1969 Raffles Lighthouse Gold (916), the 10th Anniversary of Independence Gold (900). Those usually cost more than the gold content in the coin, and those older coins are almost never 0.999.
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